Abstract
The traditional Monte Carlo sampling method has several deficiencies in evaluating the reliability of more-electric aircraft (MEA), such as more sampling times and longer simulation time, due to the complex topology and low probability of failure of the aircraft. In this Letter, the optimal probability distribution of multi-component systems is introduced by cross-entropy, which theoretically makes the variance of reliability evaluation zero. Based on this, an evaluation method for the power-supply reliability of MEA is presented. For further analysis of the system vulnerabilities, the sensitivity of MEA is modelled based on reliability calculation. Finally, the hybrid MEA and high-voltage direct current MEA power systems are used as application scenarios to calculate the reliability and sensitivity. The results show that the proposed method has advantages in evaluating small probability events, and it is useful for the optimisation of MEA's power-supply system structure.
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