Reliability analysis of DDV and SPM in BOP-based Weibull model and expand fault dataset using deep learning

Abstract

The hydraulic systems of deepwater Blowout Preventers (BOPs) are crucial for ensuring the reliability and safety of offshore oil and gas extraction operations. A functional failure can lead to uncontrolled blowouts, resulting in casualties and significant economic losses on the rig. The Direct Drive Valve (DDV) and the Subsea Plated Mounted (SPM) valve are key components that help maintain the proper functioning of the hydraulic system in deepwater BOPs. This study begins by utilizing the Weibull analysis method to assess the reliability of the DDV and SPM valves using limited fault data samples. To enhance the accuracy of predictions, Weibull parameters are estimated through various methods, including Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), Least Squares Estimation (LSE), and a combination of Correlation Coefficient Optimization with Support Vector Regression (CCO + SVR).Given the challenges in gathering extensive fault data for DDV and SPM valves—due to complex subsea environments, cost constraints, time limitations, and other factors—this study proposes a method employing a Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) model to augment the limited fault data samples. To ensure the reliable operation of the DDV and SPM valves, preventive maintenance cycles are established at 2840 and 7550 operations, respectively. At the same reliability level, as the number of operational cycles increases, the remaining service life of the valves gradually decreases, leading to a higher probability of failure over a shorter timeframe. The Mean Remaining Life (MRL) of the DDV and SPM valves, corresponding to different operational times, is analyzed, providing essential reference points for their usage and maintenance. When the extended data sample is utilized for reliability evaluation, the reliability characteristics of the small fault data samples are effectively reflected, and the parameter prediction error remains low. This indicates that the extended data sample is more suitable for reliability evaluation.