Reliability analysis for air-breathing hypersonic vehicles based on a new dynamic PHI2 method

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to present a novel dynamic reliability model that considers the interval mixed uncertainty for the air-breathing hypersonic flight vehicle (AHFV) to guarantee flight safety and structural reliability. Design/methodology/approach Initially, the force condition of the fuselage is analyzed based on the longitudinal elastic model of an AHFV. Subsequently, a new high-efficiency dynamic reliability model is presented to describe the failure probability evolution of the fuselage structure. For the random uncertainty problem with interval distribution parameters, the interval PHI2 method of time-dependent reliability is used to obtain the time-dependent reliability interval of the AHFV. Finally, the key variables that affect the failure probability accumulation are determined, which provide an important reference for ensuring structural reliability and improving the life span of AHFVs. Findings It is demonstrated that the proposed reliability model can obtain more accurate dynamic reliability results for the fuselage, and it is confirmed the key variables that affect the failure probability accumulation. The results also provide an important reference for the reliability analysis of hypersonic vehicles. Originality/value The novelty of this work comes from the first application of the PHI2 method (considering the interval mixed uncertainty) in the AHFV and the development of a new reliability model for the entire body of AHFVs. The proposed analysis scheme is implemented on the dynamic model of the AHFV, which provides a more accurate reference for improving the structural reliability and life span of AHFVs.