Relevance of climatological information on spatial and temporal variability of Indian Summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in recent El Niño years and its impact on four important kharif crops over India

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) during El Niño years (2002, 2004 & 2009) and its impact on district-wise yield of four important kharif crops viz., rice, maize, pearlmillet and sorghum over India were analysed. The number of districts fall under different rainfall classes are different in normal and El Niño years and found that there is a small shifting of spine curve towards left, which indicate the number of districts under lower rainfall classes increased in El Niño years. As far as National level analysis indicated that the yield of these major kharif crops grown steadily during the study period with higher rate of 43 kg/ha in maize and lower rate of 6.2 kg/ha in sorghum due to technological advancement. Identified high and medium vulnerable districts with respect to above crops in El Niño years based on yield changes > −10 per cent compared to average of previous and succeeding years. 77 and 36 districts identified as highly vulnerable with respect to rice and sorghum, respectively. Whereas 36 and 65 districts in the case of sorghum and maize, respectively. Thus, the results of this study provide an opportunity to policy makers/ researchers/other stakeholders to prepare short and long term contingency plan to cope up with the situation, if there is any forecast of El Niño in future.