How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation

Abstract

Reaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end of the 21st century, due to the continuous increase of global mean temperature. In this paper, we address two questions that were asked by the City of Paris to a group of scientists: When does this event start to be likely? What are the prevailing meteorological conditions? We base our study on the CMIP6 simulation ensemble. Many of the CMIP6 yield biases in temperature. Rather than using methods of bias correction, which are not necessarily adapted to high extremes, we propose a pragmatic approach of model selection in order to seek such high temperature events that are deemed realistic. We analyze the meteorological conditions leading to first occurrences of such hot events and their common atmospheric patterns. This paper describes a simple data mining approach (on a large ensemble of climate model simulations) which could be adapted to other regions of the world, in order to help decision makers anticipating and adapting to such devastating meteorological events.