Relative Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Productivity Variation in National Nature Reserves on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

National nature reserves (NNRs) are at the forefront of conservation efforts on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). However, few studies have examined the vegetation dynamics and their driving forces at the whole QTP scale. In this study, we used potential Net Primary Productivity (PNPP), actual NPP (ANPP), and human-activity-induced NPP (HNPP) to analyze the vegetation dynamics of 42 NNRs on the QTP. Further, we determined the driving factors of vegetation dynamics from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that, during the 21 years studied, ANPP increased at 83.4% of the NNRs area on the QTP. Additionally, the contributions of climate change and anthropogenic factors to ANPP variation were 59.53% and 40.47%, respectively. The contribution of temperature to ANPP variation was considered high and stable, whereas the contribution of precipitation was relatively lower and variable. Residual analysis showed that human activities had both positive (51.30%) and negative effects (48.70%) on ANPP. Using Hurst exponent analysis, we found that 31.60% of the vegetation for the NNRs on the QTP will likely remain a persistent trend, and 65.4% will be stochastic in the future. By contrast, 3.00% of the vegetation mainly located in southern QTP would show a reverse trend, with most of them distributing in southern QTP, which deserves more attention. This study may help policymakers understand the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation in the different nature reserves on the QTP.