Relationship between sounding derived parameters and the strength of tornadoes in Europe and the USA from reanalysis data

Abstract

Proximity soundings from reanalysis data for tornado events in Europe for the years 1958 to 1999 and in the US for the years 1991 to 1999 have been used for generating distributions of parameter combinations important for severe convection. They include parcel updraft velocity (WMAX) and deep-layer shear (DLS), lifting condensation level (LCL) and deep-layer shear (DLS), and LCL and shallow-layer shear (LLS) for weak and significant tornadoes. We investigate how well they discriminate between weak and significant tornadoes. For Europe, these distributions have been generated for unrated, F0 and F1 tornadoes as well to discover if the unrated tornadoes can be associated with the weak tornadoes. The pattern of parameter combination distributions for unrated tornadoes in Europe strongly resembles the pattern of F0 tornadoes. Thus, the unrated tornadoes are likely to consist of mostly F0 tornadoes. Consequently, the unrated tornadoes have been included into the weak tornadoes and distributions of parameter combinations have been generated for these. In Europe, none of the three combinations can discriminate well between weak and significant tornadoes, but all can discriminate if the unrated tornadoes are included with the weak tornadoes (unrated/weak). In the US, the combinations of LCL and either of the shear parameters discriminate well between weak and significant tornadoes, with significant tornadoes occurring at lower LCL and higher shear values than the weak ones. In Europe, the shear shows the same behavior, but the LCL behaves differently, with significant tornadoes occurring at higher LCL than the unrated/weak ones. The combination of WMAX and DLS is a good discriminator between unrated/weak and significant tornadoes in Europe, but not in the US, with significant tornadoes occurring at a higher WMAX and DLS than the unrated/weak tornadoes.