Regularization of Predictors of GDP and Individual Sectors of the Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Today, the point of view is widespread that a developed stock market is a necessary component of sustainable development of the entire economy of a country, region. How true is this approach in the conditions of the frontier market and the developing economy, to which Kazakhstan belongs? In our study, we tried to quantify this approach. Compression (regularization) of predictors was carried out. The constructed model was tested on the predictors of civil aviation in Kazakhstan. The following results are obtained. The use of regularization with the goal of: data mining, identifying external predictors of development of various sectors of the economy, we consider it necessary and useful. Stock market capitalization is directly related to the money supply and, to a lesser extent, to household deposits. The view is partially confirmed that pumping money into the economy only leads to financial bubbles. The stock market index was sensitive to a wide range of social and macroeconomic indicators: population growth, unemployment, poverty, inflation, investment, devaluation. Our conclusion: for the development of the stock market does not require any specific financial measures, it is necessary to deal with the economy as a whole. Volumes of transactions with corporate securities do not have stable external predictors. The main indicators of civil aviation in the republic have stable external predictors. Passenger turnover, sending passengers directly depend on: the level of unemployment, wages, GDP per capita, various types of services and products, money supply. There are no external predictors for a separate type of aerial work - cargo transportation. Consequently, it is possible to obtain positive results through the reform of this particular segment of services.