Capital market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Africa

Abstract

In this paper, the dynamic causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in South Africa is examined – using the newly developed ARDL-Bounds testing procedure. The study uses three proxies of stock market development, namely stock market capitalisation, stock market traded value and stock market turnover, against real GDP per capita, a proxy for economic growth. Using the 1971-2007 data sets, the empirical results of this study show that the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth is sensitive to the proxy used for measuring the stock market development. When the stock market capitalisation is used as a proxy for stock market development, the economic growth is found to Granger-cause stock market development. However, when the stock market traded value and the stock market turnover are used, the stock market development seems to Granger-cause economic growth. Overall, the study finds the causal flow from stock market development to economic growth to predominate. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short-run or in the long-run.