Abstract
The agricultural economy of India with its large and growing population is closely linked to the performance of the summer monsoon rainfall over the country. For a recent 25-year period, 1961–1985, excellent All-India summer monsoon rainfall data and annual foodgrain production data are available and have been examined for their relationships. The influence of weather has been separated from the impact of technology on foodgrain production by fitting the exponential trend curve. The correlation coefficient (CC) between the percentage departure of All-India summer monsoon rainfall from average ( P) and the total annual foodgrain production index ( F) series is 0.82, which is significant at the 0.1% level. When data series are divided into two or three equal parts, the CCs are characterized by high stability and consistency. The regression equation between the two series is F = 0.58 P + 101.05, which is statistically significant at the 0.1% level, accounting for 67% of the total variance. A contingency table showed the closeness of the positive association between P and F series and further indicated that F will be > 105 during excess monsoon years and < 96 during deficient years of All-India rainfall. It is possible, from this fitted line, to estimate the foodgrain production of the country a few months in advance; this information could be useful to agricultural or scientific communities for economic planning and Governmental policy making.
Published Version
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