Abstract
Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.
Highlights
Global warming has become an irrefutable issue that needs to be recognized and urgently addressed by all mankind [1,2,3,4,5], to keep the increase in the average global temperature well below 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels [6,7]
With rapid economic and population growth, human activities increasingly rely on energy consumption [9,10,11,12]
This study quantitatively evaluates carbon emissions from energy consumption in Henan Province, fully accounting for its status as a large agricultural province and its transformation in industrial structure
Summary
Global warming has become an irrefutable issue that needs to be recognized and urgently addressed by all mankind [1,2,3,4,5], to keep the increase in the average global temperature well below 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels [6,7]. Henan has become an attractive hut for economic activities and subsequently has been faced with continuous population growth, while striving to maintain its status as a large agricultural province. In this context, its primary concern is to optimize its industrial structure, and to improve economic and environmental benefits. This study quantitatively evaluates carbon emissions from energy consumption in Henan Province, fully accounting for its status as a large agricultural province and its transformation in industrial structure. Based on the simulation results and predication model, carbon emissions in Henan Province are estimated under different development patterns, represented using a combination of factors such as population, economic level, technological advances, and industrial structure. The coefficients for coal, fossil oil, natural gas, and non-fossil energy are 0.5394, 0.8359, 0.5956, and 0, respectively (ton C/ton TJ)
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