LMDI decomposition analysis of industry carbon emissions in Henan Province, China: comparison between different 5-year plans

Abstract

Due to the rapid development of industrialization, carbon emission has been increased significantly in China. To comply with international obligation, carbon reduction and energy-saving are becoming more and more important. With Henan Province being the key part of Central Plains Economic Zone, the energy consumption will be further increased. Therefore, how to control and reduce energy use and subsequent combustion emissions is a serious challenge. Based on the calculation of carbon emission in 36 industries of industrial sector during 2001–2012, the main driving factors of changes in carbon emission were analyzed using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model. The results indicate that carbon emissions in industry sector have increased from 52.3 Mt in 2001 to 184.6 Mt. Economic scale plays a decisive role in the industrial carbon emissions, resulting in increased carbon emissions by 265.8 Mt between 2001 and 2012, with two industries of Production and Supply of Electric Power Steam and Water as well as Coal Mining and Washing accounting for 50 % of increased carbon emissions. Both internal structure and energy intensity play disincentive roles, reducing carbon emissions by 73.4 and 61.5 Mt, respectively. Also, the results for carbon reduction indicate that the progress made during the 11th 5-year plan. The reduction in carbon emissions is due to a series of energy-saving and emission reduction measures taken. Energy structure has little effect on carbon emission change due to coal-based structure. Nevertheless, there is a room to further reduce carbon emission by re-adjusting internal structure and reducing energy intensity for the energy-intensive industries following the internationally advanced level. The use of renewable energy should further enhance the effect of energy structure in reducing carbon emissions. The results of the present study can assist decision makers in proposing new policies and providing strategies for effective reducing industrial carbon emissions.