Regional Study of Future Temperature and Precipitation Changes Using Bias Corrected Multi-Model Ensemble Projections Considering High Emission Pathways

Abstract

The complex hydrologic and atmospheric dynamics of New Jersey, along with the prevailing risks of extreme weather events like floods, place this region in particular at a higher risk to the impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal change in temperature and precipitation pattern over New Jersey. A multimodel ensemble provides useful information about the uncertainty of the future changes of future climate. High emission scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) of the 5th Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also aids to capture the possible extremity of the climate change. Using the CMIP5 regional climate modeling predictions, this study analyzes the distribution of the temperature and precipitation over New Jersey, USA in recent years (1971–2000) and in three future periods (i.e. 2010-2040, 2041-2070 and 2070-2100) considering RCP 8.5 scenarios. Climate changes are expressed in terms of 30-yr return values of annual near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. At the end of the century, the mean temperature increase over New Jersey expected to increase between 3.5°C to 7.6°C with an increase in total precipitation ranging from 6% to 10%. Spatial analysis exhibited that the Northern and Western part of New Jersey will experience greater change in temperature and precipitation in the future. Analysis from extreme climate indicators suggested increase in yearly total and high intensity rainfall up to 21st century.