Regional structure of surface-air temperature fluctuations in northern Eurasia in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st centuries

Abstract

The first empirical orthogonal functions (EOF1s) of surface-air temperature fluctuations for Russia and its neighboring states within the period 1950–2005 are analyzed. The spatial distribution of the EOF1, the first principal components (PC1s) of the observed air temperature (averaged over the summer, July, December–March, and individual winter months), and their time variations (including trend parameters, some spectral characteristics, and the quantitative indices of relation to circulation indices (on the basis of multiple step-by-step regression)) are considered. Significant seasonal differences have been revealed: the winter air-temperature fluctuations are characterized by a higher (when compared to summer) spatial coherence, especially in the latitudinal direction. The EOF1 of the winter air temperature (averaged over December–March) describes its fluctuations for almost all of Russia; in this case, no less than 70% of the PC1 variability is due to variations in several circulation indices; the main contribution (60%) is made by both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian (SCAND) indices. On the whole, over the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005, the NAO contribution exceeds the SCAND contribution to the winter temperature variability; the NAO is associated with a more rapid increase in air temperature in 1968–1997 and with the 1971–2005 trend. In 1951–1970 the main contribution to air temperature fluctuations was made by SCAND; the SCAND contribution exceeds the NAO contribution in the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005. The 1971–2005 and 1968–1997 temperature trends are completely described by variations in the NAO (70%) and SCAND (30%) indices for January and February.