Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Energy Factor

Abstract

A key factor that influenced regional security in the South Caucasus was the hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the fall of 2020. Those events have changed the balance of power in the region. The efforts of Azerbaijan, which relied on political and military support from Turkey, led to Baku’s control over part of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The hostilities of the fall of 2020 aggravated the internal political situation in Armenia. Turkey strengthened its position in the region. In addition to solving geopolitical problems and promoting its economic interests in the countries of the South Caucasus, Ankara’s policy was aimed at expanding its presence in the energy sector, including through increased influence on Azerbaijan. The implementation of the “Southern Gas Corridor” project has made Turkey a key “player” in the South Caucasus in the energy sphere. Ankara has gained an opportunity to influence gas supplies to Europe. It also has access to Azerbaijan’s gas streams. In the long run, Turkey hopes to reach hydrocarbon resources on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea, particularly Turkmen gas. With information and political support from the United States, Turkey has promoted the idea of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. Thus, Turkey’s policy promoted the development of the East-West Energy Corridor. The Turkish-Azerbaijani-Georgian trilateral format contributed to this. It allowed Ankara to greatly expand its presence in the South Caucasus and to impact the political and economic development of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Overall, however, Ankara’s policy has had a negative impact on regional security and has intensified the competition for influence in the South Caucasus among extra-regional actors.