Abstract
Establishing an efficient regional landslide rainfall warning system plays an important role in landslide prevention. To forecast the performance of landslides with creep deformation at a regional scale, a black box model based on statistical analysis was proposed and was applied to Yunyang County in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA), China. The data samples were selected according to the characteristics of the landslide displacement monitoring data. Then, the rainfall criteria applied to different time periods were determined by correlation analysis between rainfall events and landslides and by numerical simulation on landslide movement under certain rainfall conditions. The cumulative rainfall thresholds that were determined relied on the displacement ratio model, which considered landslide scale characteristics and the statistical relationship between daily rainfall data and monthly displacement data. These thresholds were then applied to a warning system to determine a five-level warning partition of landslides with creep deformation in Yunyang County. Finally, landslide cases and displacement monitoring data were used to validate the accuracy of the model. The validation procedure showed that the warning results of the model fit well with actual conditions and that this model could provide the basis for early warning of landslides with creep deformation.
Highlights
Rainfall is one of the major external forces triggering landslides in the TGRA13–15
Apart from landslides which were induced suddenly, there are many landslides with creep deformation that exist in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA), with annual displacements from tens to hundreds of millimeters, but few researchers have focused on the rainfall thresholds for these
The aim of this paper is to establish a rainfall warning system applicable to landslides with creep deformation at a regional scale, with Yunyang County in the TGRA being selected as the study area
Summary
Rainfall is one of the major external forces triggering landslides in the TGRA13–15. how to provide early warning for landslide hazards under heavy rainfall conditions has always been a popular issue[16,17]. The majority of black box models are based on empirical or statistical studies of the rainfall characteristics that have led to the onset of landslides in the past[23,24]. Such studies are aimed at using rainfall monitoring data to establish a statistical relationship between the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides and rainfall characteristics[25,26]. The aim of this paper is to establish a rainfall warning system applicable to landslides with creep deformation at a regional scale, with Yunyang County in the TGRA being selected as the study area. The strata mainly include the Quaternary, Jurassic and Triassic, among which the sandstone and mudstone of the Jurassic are the most widely distributed[38,39]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary 
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call