Regional, local and current forecast of the impact hazard of coal seam sites based on seismic monitoring

Abstract

Relevance. Insufficient validity of the quantitative criteria of the regional, local and current forecast of the impact hazard of the coal seams being developed, the absence of algorithms linking the use of geophysical and direct geomechanical methods in forecasting. Aim. To develop a comprehensive method of geodynamic forecasting, including determining the extent of an impact-prone area identified by the results of a regional forecast based on the registration data of the GITS seismic monitoring system, for conducting local and current forecasts of impact hazard by regulatory methods. Object. An array of rocks of the excavation column 4-1-5-7 of the Osinnikovskaya mine during mining operations in the zone of a group of tectonic disturbances and the intersection of advanced workings. Methods. Regional geomechanical forecast by the geophysical method of seismic activity registration (GITS system), local (current) forecast by natural electromagnetic radiation methods (Angel-M equipment) and the output of drilling fines. Results. The paper introduces the results of complex studies in the excavation column 4 1-5-7 of the Osinnikovskaya mine to establish a correlation between seismic activity and the parameters of the stress-strain state of the array. The authors have introduced the concept of integral indicators of the considered parameters IF and Ikσ. They take into account the area of the zone for the i-th range according to the complex parameter of seismic activity F and the coefficient of vertical stresses in the roof of the formation Kσ. It is established that the informative value of the integral indicators is almost twice as high as the informative value of the initial parameters. Experimental nomograms и are presented to determine the category "DANGEROUS/NON-DANGEROUS" for the regional forecast of impact hazard according to the GITS seismic monitoring system. The authors developed a general algorithm for predicting the impact hazard during clean-up operations. This algorithm uses an integrated approach that includes a regional forecast for recording seismic activity within the mine field and local forecasting methods, both geophysical and direct, to clarify the boundaries of seismic energy release zones and confirm the category of impact hazard. Thу paper introduces the example of determining the width of the zone of increased seismic energy release in the mine closest to the seismically active zone. The dynamics of the occurrence, development and decrease of the seismic energy release zone in the considered areas in the mine workings is shown. The authors give the examples of the implementation of a local forecast of impact hazard in previously established potentially dangerous areas by methods of recording natural electromagnetic radiation of rocks and by the output of drilling fines.