Regional level analysis of the population by real data and projections in Hungary

Abstract

The population projections of Laszlo Hablicsek (1953-2010) have made a major scientific contribution to understanding the demographic processes of Hungary. Its social and economic usefulness cannot be questioned; although, trends of the past ten years indicate the need for some corrections. The present analysis shows that, for the past ten years, the population estimates were very close to reality. There was no significant difference between the estimated and real data; only last year’s data showed some variation (however, it should be noted that the projections for smaller territories are in need of significant corrections). In recent years, regional disparities in the country rather increased. The migration towards large cities from undeveloped areas to more developed ones raise dissonance among regions. The population concentration proved to be stronger than the forecast, and the analysis showed that the regional concentration of the population, as well as the loss of population, has further reinforced the unfavourable position of underdeveloped regions at micro-regional level. Immigration from abroad further enhances regional differences since immigrants presumably do not prefer rural, disadvantaged areas; they most probably favour economically developed micro-regions, which are close to big cities. The observed changes in the socio-economic environment require corrections in the demographic projections for both the professional audience as well as actors in social policy