Abstract
In a liberalized energy market, policymakers cannot over-impose the deployment of new distributed generators, either in terms of location or in terms of size/technology; on the opposite, they are asked to promote incentives, penalties or constraints in order to foster a generation portfolio evolution fitting with the energy need of the loads. In the paper, given a local distribution grid, a two-step procedure is proposed to define the most effective energy policy, willing to drive a proper evolution of the generation portfolio, i.e., to maximize the renewable sources exploitation taking into account the grid constraints. The approach proposed is based on a stochastic (Monte Carlo) procedure. Given a generation portfolio, many scenarios are evaluated, changing generators’ nominal power, point of common coupling and also a slightly different technologies share. Actually, the final goal of the procedure proposed is to simulate the stochastic behavior of users with respect to the regional energy policy (i.e., to perform a multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis) in order to validate the proposed generation portfolio. In particular, in the first step of the procedure, it is defined a portfolio in which generators are aggregated with respect to the power plant technology (PV, wind, small hydro, big hydro, etc.). Such a portfolio is optimized in order to maximize the matching between local production and local consumption. In the second step, a Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to stochastically take into account a significant number of possible configurations of each portfolio (number of generators, unit size, location, etc.). Given the generator’s distribution, a probability index based on a Hosting Capacity concept is proposed as a performance index. Conductors’ thermal limits and slow voltage variations on the electrical network are evaluated for several generator’s distributions and for different dispersed generation penetrations. The final goal of the approach proposed is to define the optimal local generation portfolio fitting both with the load profiles and with the bounds of the distribution grid already in place. Such an output resulted to be a valuable piece of information for decisionmakers in order to properly promote regional energy planning policies. In order to validate the approach and demonstrate its capabilities, the procedure proposed has been applied to the real medium voltage distribution grid relevant to the Italian city of Aosta, i.e., real-life topologies, renewable-based generation and load fluctuation have been simulated.
Highlights
Regional energy planning is becoming more and more important given the exponential rise of renewable resources based on small power plants connected to the local distribution grid, commonly identified as Dispersed Generation (DG)
This paper focuses on the scenario in which the entity in charge of the Regional Energy Planning is the local policymaker, willing to promote the penetration of the local renewable energy sources into the local electrical grid, adopting policies fitting both with the national [26] and international directives [27]
The Hosting Capacity Violation Probability (HCVP), as defined, can be related to a general constrain; we propose to evaluate it with respect to thermal and voltage limits because, as previously mentioned, these are the most critical ones for the operation of the grid
Summary
Regional energy planning is becoming more and more important given the exponential rise of renewable resources based on small power plants connected to the local distribution grid, commonly identified as Dispersed Generation (DG). Energy planning processes have to start from an evaluation of the energy needs in the region, the possible future evolution of such energy needs, the renewable resources locally available and the technical parameters of the local electrical grid In such a perspective a first not trivial issue is the identification of the geographical bounds of the problem, i.e., the definition of the spatial bound of the local area (hereinafter defined as the Region) under investigation. Given the constraints on the number of customers that can be connected to such distribution grids, and the heavy environmental impact their deployment can have, one of the most important targets is to exploit at best the already in place infrastructure, minimizing and postponing eventual grid reinforcements Given such an approach, it is possible to directly link the DG impact on the MV distribution grid to the Regional Energy Planning procedure in the relevant area. Many studies are devoted to identifying the HC of a distribution grid, but most of them are based on deterministic approaches
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