Abstract
AbstractThe 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end‐of‐century global warming of 2.6–3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global‐mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea‐ice loss and thermosteric sea‐level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.
Highlights
In light of the 2015 Paris Agreement that compels participating nations to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a sufficient rate to avert global warming of 2 K above preindustrial levels it has fallen to the climate science community to elucidate plausible mitigation pathways which may limit global warming to 1.5 K (UNFCCC, 2015)
In this paper, using the HadGEM2-ES climate model, we find that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering could effectively stabilize global warming at 1.5 K above preindustrial levels, while none of the widely studied Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) scenarios can achieve this
Δ NATL storms changes over the Amazon (Figures 11b,11e, and 11f ), which we attribute to the plant physiological response to CO2 and to a regional dynamical response related to subtle Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes in the Pacific (Figure 7)
Summary
Key Points: • We perform simulations in which solar geoengineering is used to stabilize global warming at 1.5 K above preindustrial levels • Enhanced storm surge activity and heatwave increases under global warming are effectively counteracted by solar geoengineering • Solar geoengineering does little to counteract Amazonian hydrological changes and North Atlantic storm track displacement Supporting Information: • Supporting Information S1. Citation: Jones, A. C., Hawcroft, M. K., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Guo, X., & Moore, J. C. (2018). Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering, Earth’s Future, 6, 230–251, https://doi.org/10 .1002/2017EF000720 Anthony C. Jones1 , Matthew K. Hawcroft1, James M. Haywood1,2 , Andy Jones2 , Xiaoran Guo3, and John C. Moore3,4
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