Abstract
The Caribbean, along with other small island developing states (SIDS), have advocated for restricting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the current century. Solar radiation management (SRM) may be one way to achieve this goal. This paper examines the mean Caribbean climate under various scenarios of an SRM-altered versus an SRM-unaltered world for three global warming targets, namely, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Data from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (GeoMIP1) were examined for two SRM scenarios: the G3 experiment where there is a gradual injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the tropical lower stratosphere starting in 2020 and terminating after 50 years, and the G4 experiment where a fixed 5 Teragram (Tg) of SO2 per year is injected into the atmosphere starting in 2020 and ending after 50 years. The results show that SRM has the potential to delay attainment of the 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C global warming targets. The extent of the delay varies depending on the SRM methodology but may be beyond mid-century for the 1.5 °C goal. In comparison, however, the higher temperature thresholds are both still attained before the end of century once SRM is ceased, raising questions about the value of the initial delay. The application of SRM also significantly alters mean Caribbean climate during the global warming target years (determined for a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) world without SRM). The Caribbean is generally cooler but drier during the 1.5 °C years and similarly cool but less dry for years corresponding to the higher temperature targets. Finally, the mean Caribbean climate at 1.5 °C differs if the global warming target is achieved under SRM versus RCP4.5. The same is true for the higher warming targets. The implications of all the results are discussed as a background for determining whether SRM represents a viable consideration for Caribbean SIDS to achieve their “1.5 to stay alive” goal.
Highlights
Introduction iationsSmall island developing states (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to climate change and its impacts
The Caribbean, along with other small island developing states (SIDS), have advocated for future increases in temperature to be limited to 1.5 ◦ C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the current century—1.5 ◦ C is seen as a threshold beyond which Caribbean life may be significantly altered and may not be viable [1,7,8]
It is anticipated that Caribbean SIDS may be increasingly called upon to consider the use of solar radiation management (SRM) geo-engineering to achieve the “1.5 to stay alive” goal
Summary
Small island developing states (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. These regions are extremely sensitive to climate due to their small size, complex topologies, reliance on climate sensitive economic activities (e.g., agriculture and tourism) and overwhelming dependence on rainfall for water, amongst other things [1,2,3,4,5]. SIDS, including the islands of the Caribbean, have been advocating for global mean temperatures to be held to a maximum of 1.5 ◦ C above preindustrial levels by the end of the current century [6]. At 1.5 ◦ C the Caribbean is projected to experience (i) moderate to extreme drought approximately 16% of the time, (ii) a marked increase in the temperature humidity index (THI)
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