Regional climate change and its impact on photooxidant concentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate‐chemistry model

Abstract

In order to investigate possible effects of global climate change on the near‐surface concentrations of photochemical compounds in southern Germany, nested regional simulations with a coupled climate‐chemistry model were carried out. The simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for central Europe were driven by meteorological boundary conditions provided by a long‐term simulation of the global climate model ECHAM4. Two time slices of about 10 years were compared, one representing the 1990s and one representing the 2030s. For the region of southern Germany the simulations show an increase of the mean summer temperature by almost 2° along with a decrease of cloud water and ice and a corresponding increase of the photolysis frequencies and the emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons. Under the model assumption of unchanged anthropogenic emissions this leads to an increase of the mean mixing ratios of most photooxidants. Because of the complex topography and the heterogeneous distribution of precursor emissions all parameters show pronounced regional patterns. The average daily maximum ozone concentrations in southern Germany increase for the considered scenario by nearly 10% in the summer months. Depending on the region, the increase of the mean daily maximum ranges between 2 and 6 ppb. As a consequence, the number of days when the 8‐hour mean of the ozone concentration exceeds the threshold value of 120 μg m−3 increases by 5 to 12 days per year.