Regional Assessment of Climate Change Hazards in Southern Nigeria with GIS

Abstract

In sub-Saharan Africa, storm surge zones are concentrated in four nations including Nigeria where half of the region’s surge zones resulting from sea level rise and violent storms originate. This comes in an era in which Africa’s coastline population will be at risk from sea level rise and coastal flooding over the coming decades. With much of Nigeria's urban population and economic activity located along the low-lying coastline, including the Niger Delta and portions of Lagos in the South west. Risk exposures will increase with population growth in these areas. Considering that significant levels of the country’s CO2 and CH4 (carbon dioxide and methane) emissions come from the Southern region, the projected impacts of rising sea levels from warming temperature threatens several Southern states such as Lagos and others. Given the economic potentials of the coast, highlighting extreme climate patterns in the zone spatially, offers ideal opportunity for mitigation. While very little has been done to capture these concerns, the dangers from sea level rise, flood hazards and coastal erosion in the region has been exacerbated by different elements like human activities, greenhouse gas emissions and natural forces. Seeing the connections between sea level rise threats and many factors, there is a need for a mix scale model using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and descriptive statistics in order to enhance coastal environmental management strategies. Accordingly, this project focuses on a regional assessment of climate change hazards in Southern Nigeria with emphasis on the issues, trends, factors, impacts and efforts. In applying the mix scale tools, results show that the region is facing challenges with changes in climate parameters (land use, (GHG) Green House Gas emissions, precipitation patterns, sea level rise, flooding and rising temperature) due to pressures from socio-economic and physical factors. GIS mapping of the trends also pinpointed the exposures in the major ecozones, vulnerability of surging population centers, the risks to oil and gas infrastructure in low lying areas and the intensity of rainfall and flood hazards. To remedy the situation, the study proffered suggestions ranging from the need for effective policy, growth management measures, installation of early warning systems to more use of GIS and the design of a regional climate information system to protect the study area.