Abstract
Recording probabilities for large-magnitude (M≥4) explosive eruptions are assessed regionally over the last 1000 years, using the LaMEVE database. Although the uncertainty is large, due to the scarcity of large eruptions, it does not swamp differences in recording probabilities across times and regions. Broadly, the results reflect the pattern of European colonial expansion. Iceland presents an interesting anomaly, with a declining recording probability—going back in time—conflicting with its long history of written records. However, this may be explained by the loss of records in the 17th and 18th centuries. Globally, we find that records of roughly 40% of large-magnitude explosive eruptions are missing. There is a marked difference in modern recording probabilities pre- and post-1980, which we attribute to changes in the way that the magnitude of large eruptions is assessed.
Highlights
This is a follow-up paper to Rougier et al (2016), to which readers should refer for a wider review of the issue of under-recording
We showed that the global recording probability for large explosive eruptions of stratovolcanoes falls rapidly from 100% going back in time, based on the observations in the LaMEVE database (Crosweller et al 2012; Brown et al 2014)
The observations are from the LaMEVE database, version 3.1 (Crosweller et al 2012; Brown et al 2014), downloaded October 2015
Summary
This is a follow-up paper to Rougier et al (2016), to which readers should refer for a wider review of the issue of under-recording. We showed that the global recording probability for large explosive eruptions of stratovolcanoes falls rapidly from 100% going back in time, based on the observations in the LaMEVE database (Crosweller et al 2012; Brown et al 2014). The global recording probability was below 50% prior to 1600CE, and below 20% prior to 1100 CE (with at least 95% confidence); see Fig. 5 below. In this paper we estimate recording probabilities for the last millenium, region by region. Our regions are those defined in the Volcano Reference File of the Smithsonian Institution. We extend our analyis from stratovolcanoes to all volcanoes capable of
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