Abstract
Large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan were compiled for the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database. Here we use this dataset to investigate the under-recording of Japanese explosive eruptions. We identify under-recording of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4–5 eruptions on two timescales. Model fitting and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC and AICc) model selection suggest that these trends can be represented with the double exponential decay model, reflecting geologic processes. The time series of the recording rate of larger eruptions (VEI 6 and 7) show a slowly decreasing trend in comparison to smaller eruptions. These time series can be represented with the single exponential decay model. The percentages of missing eruptions are estimated from the fitted models. Our results show an inverse correlation between VEI and degree of under-reporting suggesting that even larger VEI eruptions are under-recorded in the Quaternary. For example, 89 % of VEI 4 events, 65–66 % of VEI 5 events, 46–49 % of VEI 6 events and 36–39 % of VEI 7 events are missing from the record at 100 ka, 200 ka, 300 ka, and 500 ka, respectively. Comparison of frequencies of Japanese and global eruptions suggests that under-recording of the global database is 7.9–8.7 times larger than in the Japanese dataset. Therefore, under-recording of events must be taken into account in estimating recurrence rates of explosive eruptions using the geologic record.
Highlights
Databases of large magnitude volcanic eruptions Databases of large magnitude volcanic eruptions have been created to provide basic information about explosive volcanism (e.g. Machida and Arai, 2003; Committee for catalog of Quaternary volcanoes in Japan 2000; Siebert and Simkin, 2002; Siebert et al, 2010) and to facilitate assessment of hazards and risks from volcanic eruptions (e.g. Mason et al, 2004; Crosweller et al, 2012)
To support assessments of environmental and societal impacts of volcanism on global, regional and local scales and to provide basic information on global explosive volcanism, the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database was created as a component of the Volcanic Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA) database, which is being developed as part of the Global Volcano Model (GVM) (Crosweller et al, 2012)
The results of model fitting, Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and AICc model selection suggest that the time series of the recording rate of smaller and larger eruptions can be described by double exponential decay model and exponential decay model, respectively (Fig. 2, Table 3)
Summary
Databases of large magnitude volcanic eruptions Databases of large magnitude volcanic eruptions have been created to provide basic information about explosive volcanism (e.g. Machida and Arai, 2003; Committee for catalog of Quaternary volcanoes in Japan 2000; Siebert and Simkin, 2002; Siebert et al, 2010) and to facilitate assessment of hazards and risks from volcanic eruptions (e.g. Mason et al, 2004; Crosweller et al, 2012). To support assessments of environmental and societal impacts of volcanism on global, regional and local scales and to provide basic information on global explosive volcanism, the LaMEVE database was created as a component of the Volcanic Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA) database, which is being developed as part of the Global Volcano Model (GVM) (Crosweller et al, 2012). The database contains information about the age of eruptions, deposit type, deposit volumes, VEI, eruption magnitude, intensity, basic geochemistry, source volcano location, data sources, errors and uncertainties with indices of data reliability (Crosweller et al, 2012). This database is publically available online (Crosweller et al, 2012; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa) and currently contains information on 3,107 Quaternary volcanoes and 1,887 explosive eruption records from the last 2.6 My
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