Regional Analysis of the Potential Distribution of Heptacodium miconioides and Its Competitor Species in China

Abstract

Heptacodium miconioides is listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as a rare and endangered plant which is being subjected to competition for environmental resources by Fraxinus insularis. The impact of competing species on the dispersal of H. miconioides across time and space is unclear, which hinders our ability to effectively protect rare and endangered species. Therefore, in this study, we performed a spatial analysis of the interactions between H. miconioides and F. insularis using the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) coupled with the Spatio-temporal Geographic Weighted Regression Model. The results show that: Among the 20 environmental factors selected, Precipitation in Driest Quarter (Bio17) was the primary factor affecting H. miconioides and F. insularis. An expansion of H. miconioides and F. insularis habitats will be seen in future environments compared to current environments. Under the current climatic conditions, the ecological niche overlap has a D value of 0.7261 and an I value of 0.9188, and the ecological niche overlap will increase further in future environments. The distribution of F. insularis practically covered the area suitable for H. miconioides, and the influence of F. insularis’s suitability index on H. miconioides gradually increased. The region of negative impacts has changed, with distribution in the current environment in the southern part of Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, and northern part of Zhejiang, China, moving to the southern part of Henan, and the junction between Zhejiang and Anhui in the 2050s. Sustainability is one of the important goals in global development today, and the conservation of rare and endangered plants is one of the most important elements of sustainable development. It is not only beneficial to the survival and health of human beings, but also helps to promote the sustainable development of ecologies, economies, and societies.