Reformulated and alternative fuels: modeled impacts on regional air quality with special emphasis on surface ozone concentration.

Abstract

The comprehensive European Air Pollution and Dispersion model system was used to estimate the impacts of the usage of reformulated and alternative fuels on regional air quality with special emphasis on surface ozone concentrations. A severe western European summer smog episode in July 1994 has been used as a reference, and the model predictions have been evaluated for this episode. A forecast simulation for the year 2005 (TREND) has been performed, including the future emission development based on the current legislation and technologies available. The results of the scenario TREND are used as a baseline for the other 2005 fuel scenarios, including fuel reformulation, fuel sulfur content, and compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative fuel. Compared to the year 1994, significant reductions in episode peak ozone concentrations and ozone grid hours are predicted for the TREND scenario. These reductions are even more pronounced within the investigated alternative and reformulated fuel scenarios. Especially, low sulfur fuels are appropriate for an immediate improvement in air quality, because they effect the emissions of the whole fleet. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that the introduction of CNG vehicles would also enhance air quality with respect to ozone.