Reflections on the Predictability of Evolution: Toward a Conceptual Framework.

Alix Mas,Yvan Lagadeuc,Philippe Vandenkoornhuyse

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2020.101736

Abstract

SummaryEvolution is generally considered to be unpredictable because genetic variations are known to occur randomly. However, remarkable patterns of repeated convergent evolution are observed, for instance, loss of pigments by organisms living in caves. Analogous phenotypes appear in similar environments, sometimes in response to similar constraints. Alongside randomness, a certain evolutionary determinism also exists, for instance, the selection of particular phenotypes subjected to particular environmental constraints in the “evolutionary funnel.” We pursue the idea that eco-evolutionary specialization is in some way determinist. The conceptual framework of phenotypic changes entailing specialization presented in this essay explains how evolution can be predicted. We also discuss how the predictability of evolution could be tested using the case of metabolic specialization through gene losses. We also put forward that microorganisms could be key models to test and possibly make headway evolutionary predictions and knowledge about evolution.

Highlights

FACING THE DIFFICULTY OF PREDICTING EVOLUTION Two hundred years into the exploration of evolution and the question of predictability is still the subject of lively debate
We propose hereafter a new framework to better apprehend and predict evolutionary trajectories especially by working with microorganisms to take advantage of their time of generation and to experiment evolution
We can predict that this environmental pressure on population and community dynamics would lead to specialization toward this particular nutrient, and to metabolic optimization (Figure 4)

Summary

Introduction

FACING THE DIFFICULTY OF PREDICTING EVOLUTION Two hundred years into the exploration of evolution and the question of predictability is still the subject of lively debate. Predicting evolution is intricate as it invokes every biological level; from the modification of the molecular structure of DNA, to a change in functions and phenotypes, and even population and community structures (Figure 1).

Results

Conclusion