Reflections on the past and Future of Social Research on Earthquake Warnings

Abstract

If research into the social effects of earthquake predictions and warnings is to be useful over the long run, it must the cumulative, and it must have a firm theoretical foundation. For research to be cumulative and theoretically grounded, specific questions must be formulated and findings interpreted in terms of an organized series of broad questions that transcendent the topic of earthquake prediction response. The most frequently used approach is to conceive of earthquake prediction response as a problem of communication and, more specifically, of risk communication. In this review I will suggest a series of broad questions framed in terms of communication process and offer examples of specific issues and findings as elaborations of each of the broad questions. Any complete paradigm of communication must deal with both the sender and the receiver as well as the social context in which the interact.