Refining projected multidecadal hydroclimate uncertainty in East-Central Europe using CMIP5 and single-model large ensemble simulations

Abstract

Future hydroclimate projections of global climate models for East-Central Europe diverge to a great extent, thus, constrain adaptation strategies. To reach a more comprehensive understanding of this regional spread in model projections, we make use of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble and six single-model initial condition large ensemble (SMILE) simulations to separate the effects of model structural differences and internal variability, respectively, on future hydroclimate projection uncertainty. To account for model uncertainty, we rank 32 CMIP5 models based on their predictive skill in reproducing multidecadal past hydroclimate variability. Specifically, we compare historical model simulations to long instrumental and reanalysis surface temperature and precipitation records. The top 3–ranked models—that best reproduce regional past multidecadal temperature and precipitation variability—show reduced spread in their projected future precipitation variability indicating less dry summer and wetter winter conditions in part at odds with previous expectations for Central Europe. Furthermore, not only does the regionally best performing CMIP5 models belong to the previously identified group of models with more realistic land-atmosphere interactions, their future summer precipitation projections also emerge from the range of six SMILEs’ future simulations. This suggests an important role for land-atmosphere coupling in regulating hydroclimate uncertainty on top of internal variability in the upcoming decades. Our results help refine the relative contribution of structural differences between models in affecting future hydroclimate uncertainty in the presence of irreducible internal variability in East-Central Europe.