Reference evapotranspiration changes in China: natural processes or human influences?

Abstract

In this study, we systematically analyze the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETref) across China using Penman–Monteith (P-M) method, exploring the major sensitive meteorological variables for ETref, and investigating influences of human activities, mainly urbanization in this study, on ETref changes in both space and time. We obtain some important conclusions: (1) decreasing annual and seasonal ETref is observed in the east, south and northwest China. However, a long strip lying between these regions is identified to be characterized by increasing ETref; (2) in the regions east to 100°E, the net total solar radiation is the main cause behind the decreasing ETref. In northwest China, however, relative humidity is recognized as the most sensitive variable for the ETref; (3) in the east and south China, urbanization greatly influences the ETref by directly decreasing net solar radiation. The increased air pollution and aerosols in the highly urbanized regions are the main driving factors causing decreasing net radiation; and (4) this study reveals accelerating hydrological cycle from south to north China. Besides, increasing ETref in the source regions of large rivers in China may pose new challenges for the basin-scale water resource management. The results of this study highlight the integrated effects of climate changes and human activities on ETref changes in different regions of China, which will be of great scientific and practical merits in in-depth understanding of hydrological cycle alterations under the changing environment in China.