Abstract
The reference class problem in probability theory and the multiple inheritances (extensions) problem in non-monotonic logics are special cases of conflicting beliefs. One popular solution accepted in the two domains is the specificity principle. By analyzing an example, several factors beyond specificity are found to be relevant to the priority of a reference class. A new approach, Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), is discussed, where these factors are all taken into account. It is argued that the solution provided by NARS is better than the solutions provided by probability theory and non-monotonic logics.
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