Recursive Estimation of System Parameter in Environmental Time Series Models

Abstract

Dealing with high-frequency time series, such as environmental ones, raises important inferential and computational problems. Environmental monitoring and forecasting, for instance, require statistical procedures giving reliable estimates of unknown parameters and forecasts in real time. In this paper we consider dynamic linear models as a basic tool for the analysis of such kind of data and propose a recursive estimator for system parameter. A comparison of this estimator with some other estimation methods is provided via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimator we propose is computationally efficient and very easy to implement. Moreover, in our simulation study, it exhibits good asymptotic properties.