Recurrent neural network using LSTM for prediction of atmospheric pollutants in the State of Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

This article shows the use of a recurrent neural network LSTM whose objective was to make a 24-hour ozone forecast with data obtained from the INECC (National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change) and the validated database of the National Information System of Air Quality (SINAICA spanish acronym). The problem of air quality in the world is essential due to health problems. Currently, the techniques used to generate forecasts in monitoring stations are not accurate and do not allow generating alerts to avoid exposure to poor air quality. The state of Veracruz in Mexico has 7 air quality monitoring stations, showing that it is feasible to alternatively have a betterquality pollutant concentration forecasting system. The results obtained on the correlations of variables, although weak, positive or negative, allowed us to recognize their usefulness in the development of training in the RNN. The use of neural networks was demonstrated for the forecast of ozone concentration values in the metropolitan area of Poza Rica, using the LSTM using Python, Tensor Flow and Keras, with a good fit to the normalized pattern with an average RMSE of 0.0053 ppm of the days chosen for testing between the period from June 2019 to July 2020. Future work will consider PM10 and PM2.5.