Recovery of coral cover in records spanning 44 yr for reefs in Kāne‘ohe Bay, Oa‘hu, Hawai‘i

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Published and unpublished long-term studies are assembled to examine trends in coral cover and the dependence of change in coral cover on the initial coral cover in Kāne‘ohe Bay over the last 44 yr. Each study showed there had been periods of increase in coral cover in the bay and showed that the rate of change in cover has been inversely dependent on the initial cover at a site. When coral cover is high on upper reef slopes, the fragile structure of reefs in this sheltered bay often collapses, resulting in a decrease in coral cover. The rate of change in coral cover was also inversely dependent on cover in one of the two studies that included analysis of reef-flat corals; the cause of decrease in cover in this habitat is thought to be attributable to particularly low sea levels in Hawai‘i in the late 1990s and 2009–2010. The inverse relationship between initial coral cover and change in cover, and the intersections of the regression lines of these variables with the x-axis at intermediate values of coral cover, is indicative of resilience in this ecosystem over the last 44 yr. In the 1970s, the invasive macroscopic green alga Dictyosphaeria cavernosa covered a high percentage of coral habitat and commonly displaced corals from the reef slope and outer reef flats; the change was cited as an example of a phase shift on a reef. This alga has virtually disappeared from the bay, thus increasing the space available to corals; its disappearance is coincident with the increase in coral cover. Other species of macroalgae, including alien species, have not replaced D. cavernosa as major space competitors. The increase in coral cover and virtual disappearance of D. cavernosa constitute an example of a phase-shift reversal.