Reconstruction of long-term sublethal effects of warming on a temperate coral in a climate change hotspot.

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The impact of warming on zooxanthellate corals is widespread, from tropical to temperate seas, with its associated mortalities causing global concern. The temperate coral Cladocora caespitosa is the only zooxanthellate coral with reef building capacity in the Mediterranean Sea, a climate change hotspot with warming rates triple the global average. During the past two decades, C. caespitosa populations have suffered severe mortality events associated with marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, with monitoring efforts beginning, at best, in the 2000s, the occurrence of MHWs before that period, as well as the sublethal effects of these events remain poorly understood. Here, we use sclerochronology to reconstruct the histories of past stress events and long-term sublethal effects on C. caespitosa in three locations along a latitudinal gradient within the NW Mediterranean Sea, each with different environmental conditions. Skeletal extension, density and calcification rates were compared with the insitu seawater temperature of each site to assess their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the occurrence of skeletal growth anomalies to reconstruct stress events between 1991 and 2021, a period that encompasses the onset and evolution of warming-related mass mortality events in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results reveal a positive association between calcification and temperature, following a latitudinal temperature gradient. However, the evolution of the likelihood distribution of growth rates in the warmest site (Columbretes Islands) since the 1990s indicates a decrease in linear extension and calcification rates during the most recent years. With the increase in the frequency of MHWs and growth anomalies during the last decade, this decline suggests recurrent physiological stress events. These results unravel information on the long-term impacts of warming on coral growth and highlight the potential of applying sclerochronology to reconstruct the sublethal effects of warming using C. caespitosa.