Reconstructing a late Neolithic extreme storm event on the southern Yangtze coast, East China, based on sedimentary records and numerical modeling

Abstract

Using geological evidence to extend the history of typhoon activity beyond the instrumental period and understand the possible linkage between future climate change and increasing storm intensity is of great significance in preparing for coastal risks in a warming world. In this study, an extreme storm event that occurred on the southern Yangtze coast, East China, during the latter stage of Neolithic Liangzhu Culture were estimated based on sedimentary records and numerical modeling. We first investigated the spatial distribution of peat layers formed during the time of the Liangzhu Culture to produce a high-resolution map of the paleo-coastline of the Ningbo Plain. Inverse modeling using the grain size of storm deposits recovered at the end of Liangzhu Culture at the Neolithic Yushan site was applied to calculate the instantaneous water level including wave run-up and storm surge caused by the extreme event. Numerical simulations of multiple typhoon scenarios combined with precipitation and sea-level rise constrained by the paleo-coastline and paleo-topography were then used to estimate the storm surge and inundation on the coast of Hangzhou Bay. Through comparison of results between the inverse model and numerical simulations, we infer that the intensity of the storm recorded at the Yushan site was likely greater than any typhoon in the local instrumental records and that the storm deposits were formed by a Super Typhoon, which moved close to or made landfall directly on the southeast coast of Hangzhou Bay. Our modeling further suggests that the extreme storm event was coupled with an abrupt relative sea-level rise at ca. 4.5 cal kyr BP, which indicates a warmer west Pacific Ocean at that time.