Recognition of potential sources of strong earthquakes in the Caucasus region using GIS technologies

Abstract

The petroleum infrastructure, which is intensively developing in the Black Sea-Caspian region, can be significantly damaged by natural disasters, such as strong earthquakes. It is obvious that information about the potential sources of strong earthquakes is the most important for elaboration of the measures pro� viding seismic safety and preventing large scale envi� ronmental catastrophes. We have considered the mountainfolded zone of the Caucasus characterized by a heterogeneous geo� logical structure, which combines the Alpine moun� tain systems of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus with the young Rioni and Kura intermontan basins divided by the Dzirula crystalline massif. The aim of the present work is to recognize the intersections of linea� ments on which earthquakes of М ≥ 6.0 can occur. The problem is solved with the help of pattern recognition algorithms applied to a scheme of the lineamentand� block structure of the Caucasus (Fig. 1). It turn, the scheme of lineaments was obtained by the method of morphostructural zoning (MSZ) and reflects the recent hierarchical block structure of the region. Resulting from the MSZ, 237 intersections of lin� eaments have been delineated in the Caucasus. These intersections in aggregate were the objects of recogni� tion in the region. The task is to subdivide these inter� sections into classes of high and low seismicity, relative to the threshold magnitude М0 = 6.0. For this purpose, the pattern recognition technique is used. Earlier, the intersections of lineaments, where М ≥ 5.5 earth� quakes can occur, were identified for the Greater (1) and Lesser Caucasus (2) independently.