Recognition of possible locations of future M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes: The Mediterranean mountain belts

Abstract

The goal of the present work is to identify high-seismicity (High) intersections of morphostructural lineaments within the Mediterranean mountain belts (the Alps, Apennines, Balkanides, Dinarides, and the Carpathians). The intersections of lineaments, with the lineaments being boundaries of crustal blocks, were determined by morphostructural zoning. The epicenters of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes and the intersections were found to be related. We used the KORA-3 recognition algorithm to identify the High intersections, where M >- 6.0 earthquakes can occur, separately for each mountainous country. Most of the High intersections identified here are located on higher-rank lineaments that separate major crustal blocks. The High intersections typically involve contrasting neotectonic movements and an increased crustal fragmentation. The results of this study point to a high seismic potential for the regions studied: we have identified many High intersections where no large earthquakes have yet been recorded.