Recession prevention handbook: eleven case studies, 1948-2007

Abstract

Preface and Acknowledgments 1. Characteristics of Recessions Business Cycles and Recessions A Proposed New Definition of Economic Downturns Frequency of Recessions since the Early 1980s Severity of Recessions Jobless Recoveries from Recent Recessions Failure to Forecast Recessions and its Policy Implications 2. The Recession of 1948-49 Backlog of Household Durable Goods, Housing, and Business Capital Needs at the End of 1947 Inflation at the End of 1947 Overview of the Economy During 1948 Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1948 Note on National Defense Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1948-49 Recession Appendix 2.1. The Economy before 1948. 3. The Recession of 1953-54 Korean War and the Economy Federal Reserve Policy Change Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1952-53 Note on National Defense 54 Recession Federal Government Fiscal Position 4. The Recession of 1957-58 Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1956-57 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1957-58 Recession 5. The Recession of 1960-61 Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1959-60 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1960-61 Recession 6. The Recession of 1969-70 Fiscal Policy and the Vietnam War Definition of Full Employment Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1968-69 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1969-70 Recession 7. The Recession of 1973-75 Economic Policy Changes of August 15, 1971 Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1972-73 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1973-75 Recession 8. The Recession of 1980 Productivity Slowdown Iranian Revolution Decline in the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1978-79 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1980 Recession 9. The Recession of 1981-82 Effect of the 1980 Recession on Subsequent Inflation Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the 1981-82 Recession Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1980-81 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1981-82 Recession 10. The Recession of 1990-91 International Events Value of the Dollar Federal Government Regulations Natural Disasters Savings and Loan Associations Failures Stock Market Crash of 1987 Fiscal Policy Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1989-90 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1990-91 Recession 11. The Recession of 2001 Economic Record Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy Stock Market and Telecommunications Companies Bubbles Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1999-2000 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 2001 Recession 12. The Recession of 2007-09 Economic Record Fiscal Policy and War Household Income, Spending, and Saving, Grouped by Household Income House Price Bubble Hurricane Katrina Economic Indicators in Real Time During 2006-07 Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 2007-09 Recession 13. Findings and Recommendations Precipitating Elements of Each Recession Themes and Agents of the Precipitating Elements Federal Reserve Policy Recommendations for Avoiding or Ameliorating Future Recessions Conclusion References Index About the Author.