Abstract
Operational ocean forecast systems provide routine marine products to an ever-widening community of users and stakeholders. The majority of users need information about the quality and reliability of the products to exploit them fully. Hence, forecast centres have been developing improved methods for evaluating and communicating the quality of their products. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) OceanView, along with the Copernicus European Marine Core Service and other national and international programmes, has facilitated the development of coordinated validation activities among these centres. New metrics, assessing a wider range of ocean parameters, have been defined and implemented in real-time. An overview of recent progress and emerging international standards is presented here.
Highlights
Operational ocean forecast systems (OOFSs) provide a wide range of analyses and forecasts of the marine environment that can be exploited by many users
This paper aims to highlight recent progress in nearreal-time monitoring of OOFS performance, and to describe different validation strategies and their limitations
Significant progress has been made in ocean-model skill assessment during the last 5–10 years
Summary
Operational ocean forecast systems (OOFSs) provide a wide range of analyses and forecasts of the marine environment that can be exploited by many users. Accuracy and skill here are defined respectively as the OOFS products degree of closeness to the ‘ocean truth’ (Hernandez 2011) and the OOFS’s usefulness for a given application (Jolliff et al 2009). An overview of skill assessment using observations and other reference datasets representing this truth is given by Stow et al (2009). The calibration, validation, verification and quality control of OOFS products are core activities in ocean operational centres (Lellouche et al 2013; Oke et al 2013; Blockley et al 2014) (OOCs). The calibration phase refers to the last comprehensive scientific assessment of the new OOFS version before operation. Validation refers to the OOFS performance assessment while in operation. Verification is defined here as the quantification of OOFS skill based on independent data, i.e. not used to generate the products
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