Recent innovations in marine biology

Abstract

AbstractModern ecology arose from natural history when Vito Volterra analysed Umberto D’Ancona’s time series of Adriatic fisheries, formulating the famous equations describing the linked fluctuations of a predator–prey system. The shift from simple observation to careful sampling design, and hypothesis building and testing, often with manipulative approaches, is probably the most relevant innovation in ecology, leading from descriptive to experimental studies, with the use of powerful analytical tools to extract data (from satellites to molecular analyses) and to treat them, and modelling efforts leading to predictions. However, the historical component, time, is paramount in environmental systems: short‐term experiments must cope with the long term if we want to understand change. Chaos theory showed that complex systems are inherently unpredictable: equational, predictive science is only feasible over the short term and for a small number of variables. Ecology is characterized by a high number of variables (e.g. species) interacting over wide temporal and spatial scales. The greatest recent conceptual innovation, thus, is to have realized that natural history is important, and that the understanding of complexity calls for humility. This is not a return to the past, because now we can give proper value to statistical approaches aimed at formalizing the description and the understanding of the natural world in a rigorous way. Predictions can only be weak, linked to the identification of the attractors of chaotic systems, and are aimed more at depicting scenarios than at forecasting the future with precision. Ecology was originally split into two branches: autecology (ecology of species) and synecology (ecology of species assemblages, communities, ecosystems). The two approaches are almost synonymous with the two fashionable concepts of today: ‘biodiversity’ and ‘ecosystem functioning’. A great challenge is to put the two together and work at multiple temporal and spatial scales. This requires the identification of all variables (i.e. species and their ecology: biodiversity, or autoecology) and of all connections among them and with the physical world (i.e. ecosystem functioning, or synecology). Marine ecosystems are the least impacted by human pressures, compared to terrestrial ones, and are thus the best arena to understand the structure and function of the natural world, allowing for comparison between areas with and areas without human impact.