Recent hydrological and geochemical research for earthquake prediction in Japan

Abstract

Hydrological and geochemical studies for earthquake prediction in Japan during the last two decades are reviewed. Following the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, the central approach to research on earthquake prediction was modified. Instead of precursory detection, emphasis was placed on understanding the entire earthquake cycle. Moreover, the prediction program for the anticipated Tokai earthquake was revised in 2003 to include the detection of preslip-related precursors. These changes included the promotion of the following hydrological and geochemical studies for earthquake prediction: (1) development and/or application of statistical methods to extract small fluctuations from hydrological/geochemical data, (2) evaluation of the detectability of preslip-related anomalies in terms of groundwater levels in wells in the Tokai region, and (3) establishment of a new groundwater and borehole strain observation network for Nankai and Tonankai earthquake prediction research. The following basic geochemical studies were carried out: (1) development of a new monitoring system using a quadrupole mass spectrometer, (2) experimental studies on hydrogen generation by the grinding of rock and crystal powders, (3) comprehensive monitoring of groundwater gas and precise crustal deformation, and (4) mantle-derivative helium observation to compare with seismic velocity structures and the distribution of non-volcanic tremors. Moreover, hydrological and geochemical investigations related to the evolution of fault zones were introduced within the framework of fault zone drilling projects.