Recent Challenges in the APCC Multi‐Model Ensemble Seasonal Prediction: Hindcast Period Issue

Abstract

AbstractSeasonal forecasts are commonly issued in the form of anomalies, which are departures from the average over a specified multiyear reference period (climatology). The model climatology is estimated as the average of the retrospective forecasts over the hindcast period. However, different operational centers that provide seasonal ensemble predictions use different hindcast periods based on their model climatology. Additionally, the hindcast periods of recently developed and upgraded newer models have shifted in the recent years. In this paper, we discuss the recent challenges faced by APCC multi‐model ensemble (MME) operations, especially changes in the hindcast period for individual models. Based on the results of various experiments for MME prediction, we propose changing the hindcast period, which is the most appropriate solution for APCC operation. This makes the newly developed models join the MME and increases the total number of participating models, which facilitates the skill improvement of the MME prediction.