Reasoning

Abstract

Abstract ‘Reasoning’ considers deductive reasoning, where we can draw conclusions from assumptions that necessarily follow, and statistical inference, in which we infer probabilities from other probabilities. Deductive reasoning and statistical inference have much in common. First, both present problems where you are given some information and asked to draw an inference. Second, each has a normative theory—a set of rules that tells us which conclusions are right and which are wrong. In the case of deductive reasoning the normative theory is logic, and for statistical inference it is probability theory. Third, each field shows that many of the answers given by individuals are wrong by these norms, fuelling a debate about human rationality.