Reanalysis of 47 Years of Climate in the French Alps (1958–2005): Climatology and Trends for Snow Cover

Abstract

Abstract Since the early 1990s, Météo-France has used an automatic system combining three numerical models to simulate meteorological parameters, snow cover stratigraphy, and avalanche risk at various altitudes, aspects, and slopes for a number of mountainous regions (massifs) in the French Alps and the Pyrenees. This Système d’Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Atmosphériques à la Neige (SAFRAN)–Crocus–Modèle Expert de Prévision du Risque d’Avalanche (MEPRA) model chain (SCM), usually applied to operational daily avalanche forecasting, is here used for retrospective snow and climate analysis. For this study, the SCM chain used both meteorological observations and guess fields mainly issued from the newly reanalyzed atmospheric model 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and ran on an hourly basis over a period starting in the winter of 1958/59 until recent past winters. Snow observations were finally used for validation, and the results presented here concern only the main climatic features of the alpine modeled snowfields at different spatial and temporal scales. The main results obtained confirm the very significant spatial and temporal variability of the modeled snowfields with regard to certain key parameters such as those describing ground coverage or snow depth. Snow patterns in the French Alps are characterized by a marked declining gradient from the northwestern foothills to the southeastern interior regions. This applies mainly to both depths and durations, which exhibit a maximal latitudinal variation at 1500 m of about 60 days, decreasing strongly with the altitude. Enhanced at low elevations, snow depth shows a mainly negative temporal variation over the study period, especially in the north and during late winters, while the south exhibits more smoothed features. The number of days with snow on the ground shows also a significant general signal of decrease at low and midelevation, but this signal is weaker in the south than in the north and less visible at high elevation. Even if a statistically significant test cannot be performed for all elevations and areas, the temporal decrease is present in all the studied quantities. Concerning snow duration, this general decrease can also be interpreted as a sharp variation of the mean values at the end of the 1980s, inducing a step effect in its time series rather than a constant negative temporal trend. The results have also been interpreted in terms of potential for a viable ski industry, especially in the southern areas, and for different changing climatic conditions. Presently, French downhill ski resorts are economically viable from a range of about 1200 m MSL in the northern foothills to 2000 m in the south, but future prospects are uncertain. In addition, no clear and direct relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the ENSO indexes and the studied snow parameters could be established in this study.