Real-time spatiotemporal prediction and imputation of traffic status based on LSTM and Graph Laplacian regularized matrix factorization

Abstract

Accurate prediction of traffic status in real time is critical for advanced traffic management and travel navigation guidance. There are many attempts to predict short-term traffic flows using various deep learning algorithms. Most existing prediction models are only tested on spatiotemporal data assuming no missing data entries. However, this ideal situation rarely exists in real world due to sensor or network transmission failure. Missing data is a nonnegligible problem. Previous studies either remove time series with missing entries or impute missing data before building prediction models. The former may cause insufficient data for model training, while the latter adds extra computational burden and the imputation accuracy has direct impacts on the prediction performance. In this study, we propose an online framework that can make spatiotemporal predictions based on raw incomplete data and impute possible missing values at the same time. We design a novel spatial and temporal regularized matrix factorization model, namely LSTM-GL-ReMF, as the key component of the framework. The Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) model is chosen as the temporal regularizer to capture temporal dependency in time series data and the Graph Laplacian (GL) serves as the spatial regularizer to utilize spatial correlations among network sensors to enhance prediction and imputation performance. The proposed framework integrating with the LSTM-GL-ReMF model are tested and compared with other state-of-the-art matrix factorization models and deep learning models on three uni-variate and multi-variate spatiotemporal traffic datasets. The experimental results show our approach has a robust and accurate performance in terms of prediction and imputation accuracy under various data missing scenarios.