Abstract

In the steel industry - Tata steel, India, most of the lime produced in the lime plant is used in the steel-making process at LD shops. The quality of steel produced at LD shops depends on the quality of lime used. Moreover, the lime also helps in the crucial dephosphorization process during steel-making. The calcined lime produced in the lime plant goes to the laboratory for testing its final quality (CaO%), which is very difficult to control. To predict, control and enhance the quality of lime during lime making process, five machine-learning-based models such as multivariate linear regression, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest and extreme gradient boosting have been developed using different algorithms. Python has been used as a tool to integrate the algorithms in the models. Each model has been trained on the past 14 months’ data of process parameters, collected from level 1 sensor devices, to predict the future quality of lime. To boost the model’s prediction performance, hyper-parameter tuning has been performed using grid-search algorithm. A comparative study has been done among all the models to select a final model with the least root mean square error in predicting and control future lime quality. After the comparison, results show that the model incorporating support vector machine algorithm has least value of root mean square error of 1.23 in predicting future lime quality. In addition to this, a self-learning approach has also been incorporated into support vector machine model to enhance its performance further in real time. The result shows that the performance has been boosted from 85% strike-rate in +/-2 error range to 90% of strike-rate in +/-1 error range in real-time. Further, the above predictive model has been extended to build a control model which gives prescriptions as output to control the future quality of lime. For this purpose, a golden batch of good data has been fetched which has shown the best quality of lime (≥ 94% of CaO%). A good range of process parameters has been extracted in the form of upper control limit and lower control limit to tune the set-points and to give the prescriptions to the user. The integration of these two models (Predictive model and control model) helps in controlling the quality of lime 12 hours before its final production of lime in lime plant. Results show that both models (Predictive model and control model) have 90% of strike-rate within +/-1 of error in real-time. Finally, a human machine interface has been developed to facilitate the user to take action based on control model’s output. Eventually this work is deployed as a lime making process automation to predict and control the lime quality.

Highlights

  • The world production of lime is estimated around 350 million tons and 40-45% of lime is used in steel manufacturing industry globally [1]

  • The results show that both models have accuracies of 90% for the error range in ±1 after incorporating the self-learning approach, which met the user demand

  • It checks for any abnormal variation in process parameter values based lower control limit (LCL) and upper control limit (UCL)

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

The world production of lime is estimated around 350 million tons and 40-45% of lime is used in steel manufacturing industry globally [1]. Various research studies have been presented on data-driven machine learning techniques in manufacturing industries. Almost no study is available for lime quality control using data-driven machine learning approach. The current model automatically takes the data from the level 2 automation system (data-base system), predicts lime quality and prescribes the operator to take actions to control the quality on hourly basis. Both predictive and control models have been validated quantitively respectively with plant data. The results show that both models have accuracies of 90% for the error range in ±1 after incorporating the self-learning approach, which met the user demand

Model Flow Diagram
Data Cleaning
Data Collection and Model Input
Assumptions: checking for multiple collinearity
Multivariate Linear Regression
Support Vector Machine
Decision Tree
Final Model Selection
Performance Boosting
FINAL MODEL SELECTION AND PERFORMANCE BOOSTING
RESULTS AND VALIDATION
CONTROL MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Feature Importance
Model Validation Test
Findings
VIII. CONCLUSIONS
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