Abstract
The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy ‘ trilemma,’ i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system ‘actors’ (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and techno-economic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a ‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders.
Highlights
The energy and climate change contextHuman development is underpinned by energy sources of various kinds that heat, power and transport its citizens in their everyday life
Bottom-up pledges received by countries prior to the Paris Conference (the so-called intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs)) for national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation efforts are expected by analysts of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)[7] to result in a warming of around 2.7 C
The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies
Summary
Human development is underpinned by energy sources of various kinds that heat, power and transport its citizens in their everyday life. It is likely that the European governments will want to keep a watching brief on advanced nuclear reactors (including modular designs) that are currently being developed in France/Germany, South Africa and the United States They will no doubt want to be reassured that such new technologies will be commercially viable.[42] The adoption of either shortor medium-term technologies would obviously be critically dependent on public attitudes to nuclear power in Britain and elsewhere.[1,11,42] Both the CardiffWeston and the smaller Shoots barrages on the River Severn between Somerset and south Wales have been evaluated by Hammond et al.[43] using various ETA techniques to determine their net energy output, carbon footprint and financial investment criteria, alongside various critical technical and environmental issues. The energy density of the latter fell below that of solar PV arrays
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