Real world data for real world problems: Importance of appropriate spatial resolution modelling to inform decision makers in marine management

Abstract

Effective management of marine ecosystems requires informed decision-making based on accurate, comprehensive and appropriate data. Mapping habitats can form an important part of these processes so that decision makers can ensure the pressures exerted by human activities can be assessed while considering the sensitivity of the environment. Predictive models can be utilised to understand the distribution of species and habitats (e.g. biotopes) without incurring the expense of wide scale surveys. If predictive models are used in decision-making care must be taken in interpreting model results. The spatial resolution at which habitat modelling is conducted can greatly influence the decision outcomes. Whilst national resolution habitat maps serve as valuable resources for informing overarching policy making, for development level decisions fine resolution habitat information is needed. This paper explores the importance of spatial resolution modelling in marine management decision-making processes, using four spatial resolutions (50 m, 100 m, 200 m and 500 m) to model the presence of a protected habitat, maerl beds, within the Fetlar-Haroldswick Marine Protected Area in the Shetland Islands, Scotland. Outputs were compared for model performance between the resolutions and area of modelled maerl bed coverage. Simulations of real-world marine activities, explore the magnitude of overlap attributable to varied spatial resolution models, with an emphasis on the presumed ‘need’ for management. This study shows the importance of considering spatial resolution in modelling outputs and highlights the challenges associated with using models to guide decision-making, direct pressures on protected habitats, and cumulative impacts. It carries significance for maximising economic opportunity while safeguarding marine features. For real-world applications coarse resolution data may suffice for strategic, large-scale decisions, but finer resolutions are imperative for consenting or managing individual marine activities. By emphasising the need for appropriate spatial resolution modelling, these findings contribute to the development of sustainable management strategies that are appropriate to the scale of the decision. Addressing the complexities of real-world decision-making and understanding the magnitude of spatial resolution required for the marine environment are a crucial principle that can also enhance and be applied to other disciplines including, terrestrial ecology, urban planning and the assessment of potential climate change impacts. Failing to model appropriately means that real-world pressures and impacts occurring on a finer scale then the available data may have their impacts over or underestimated, hindering effective governance. Whilst we are striving to meet our national and international obligations and objectives through effective marine governance, this paper highlights the challenges of real-world decision-making where data is not yet available at a suitable resolution to address these issues.